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Ethiopia

Active Federal forcesTPLF-led allianceFanoOLAEritrea since 2023-08-04

Understand

Ethiopia faces several overlapping armed conflicts. The 2020–2022 war in Tigray between the federal government, backed by Eritrea, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) ended with the Pretoria agreement in November 2022, but key issues, including disputed territory and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, were never settled. Eritrea, which fought alongside federal troops in that war, was not a party to the deal, and its relations with Addis Ababa have since soured over Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea.

In Amhara, an insurgency by Fano militias began in April 2023 after the federal government moved to dissolve regional special forces; a state of emergency followed on August 4, 2023. Fano factions have since formed a joint command, the Amhara Fano National Movement. In Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has fought the government for years; talks in Tanzania in 2023 failed, and a December 2024 deal brought one faction over to the government while the main group under Jaal Marroo fought on.

Tigray's own politics fractured after the war. The TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael took control of offices in Mekelle in 2025 and displaced the federally backed interim administration. Former interim president Getachew Reda broke with the party and aligned with Addis Ababa. Talks under the African Union framework stalled, and clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces resumed in 2026, first in January and again near the Sudanese border from August 1.

Parties

  • Ethiopian federal government Led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed; its forces are fighting on several fronts. Colors are not a judgment.
  • Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) Controls much of Tigray and leads the rebel alliance formed in September 2026.
  • Fano (Amhara Fano National Movement) Amhara militias fighting the federal government since 2023, now part of the rebel alliance.
  • Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) Oromo armed group in conflict with the government; joined the alliance politically.
  • Eritrea Accused by Ethiopia of backing the TPLF, which it denies; ties were cut in October 2026.
  • African Union Guarantor of the Pretoria agreement; has called for negotiations.

Analysis

Since late September 2026, northern Ethiopia has been back at war. On September 20 seven armed groups, among them the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the OLA, announced the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. On September 23 Tigrayan forces seized the airports at Mekelle, Axum and Shire and pushed into Afar and Amhara. The TPLF calls it a defensive war against federal drone and artillery strikes. Some coalition members have limited their role to political backing, and the OLA's military involvement is unclear.

Federal forces counterattacked on three axes. They retook Sekota on September 27, took Alamata and Korem on the main highway by September 30, and recaptured Abala and Erebti in Afar on October 1, securing the road to Djibouti. On October 2 a pro-government Tigrayan militia claimed to have captured Mekelle's airport; that claim could not be confirmed at the time. Ethiopia's military says hundreds of Tigrayan fighters have been killed. Phone and internet links in Tigray have been disrupted.

The war has a regional dimension. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, and also Egypt and Sudan, of backing the TPLF; all deny it. On October 1, 2026, Ethiopia expelled ten Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara, and Eritrea severed diplomatic ties. The fighting follows a June 1, 2026 general election in which Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party won 438 seats, with no voting held in Tigray.

What to watch

  • Whether federal forces enter Mekelle and how Tigrayan forces respond
  • Whether Eritrean forces become directly and openly involved
  • Whether the African Union or other mediators can restart talks
  • Whether Fano and the OLA open new fronts in Amhara and Oromia

Data

Parties
Federal government and allied forces; TPLF-led Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival; Fano; OLA
Fano insurgency began
April 2023; Amhara state of emergency August 4, 2023
Renewed Tigray war
Offensive launched September 23, 2026
Peace framework
Pretoria agreement, November 2022
Ethiopia–Eritrea
Diplomatic ties broken October 1, 2026
2026 election
Prosperity Party: 438 seats (June 1, 2026 vote)

Territorial control for this theatre is derived from openly licensed settlement-control data and rebuilt daily (2 snapshots held). Download: control.json (GeoJSON inside; CC BY-SA 4.0).

Timeline

  1. 2022-11The federal government and the TPLF sign the Pretoria agreement, ending the 2020–2022 Tigray war.
  2. 2023-04Fano insurgency begins in Amhara after the government moves to dissolve regional special forces.
  3. 2023-08-04The government declares a state of emergency in Amhara.
  4. 2025-03The TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael takes over offices in Mekelle, sidelining the interim administration.
  5. 2026-06-01General election held; the Prosperity Party wins a large majority, with no vote in Tigray.
  6. 2026-09-20Seven armed groups announce the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival.
  7. 2026-09-23Tigrayan forces launch an offensive, seizing airports and pushing into Afar and Amhara.
  8. 2026-10-01Ethiopia expels Eritrean diplomats and closes its embassy in Asmara; Eritrea severs ties.

Live events, aircraft and thermal anomalies for every theatre are published as GeoJSON on the data endpoints page.