Mexico cartel conflict

Active Sinaloa factionsCJNGMexican state since 2006-12-11

Understand

Mexico's conflict with organized crime is not a conventional war but a long contest among drug-trafficking groups, and between those groups and the state, over smuggling routes, extortion markets and local power. The current phase dates to December 11, 2006, when President Felipe Calderón deployed the military against cartels in Michoacán. Successive governments have relied on the armed forces and, since 2019, the National Guard, while the cartels have splintered, rearmed and diversified into fuel theft, extortion and migrant smuggling.

Two networks dominate. The Sinaloa Cartel split into warring factions after July 25, 2024, when Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada was flown to New Mexico by Joaquín Guzmán López, a son of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, and both men were arrested. Open fighting between Los Chapitos, led by El Chapo's sons, and La Mayiza, led by Zambada's son Ismael Zambada Sicairos, began on September 9, 2024. The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is the other national-scale group, with semi-autonomous regional franchises across most of the country.

Since January 2025 the Trump administration has treated the cartels as a national security threat. On February 20, 2025, the United States designated the Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG and four other Mexican groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. President Claudia Sheinbaum's government has expanded intelligence cooperation and arrests while ruling out any US military operations on Mexican soil.

Parties

Mexican government Army, Navy and National Guard lead operations against the cartels under President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Los Chapitos (Sinaloa Cartel) Faction led by sons of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, at war with La Mayiza since September 2024 and working with CJNG.
La Mayiza (Sinaloa Cartel) Faction loyal to the Zambada family, led by Ismael Zambada Sicairos.
Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) National-scale cartel with regional franchises; its founder was killed in February 2026.
United States Designates cartels as terrorist organizations, shares intelligence and presses Mexico for results; colors are not a judgment.

Analysis

As of early October 2026, the Sinaloa war is in its third year with no settlement in sight. Sinaloa's state prosecutor counted 2,951 intentional homicides and 3,889 missing-person cases between September 2024 and June 2026. Los Chapitos have worked with CJNG since 2025, while La Mayiza has drawn in allies of its own. Fighting has spread from Culiacán into rural Sinaloa and neighboring states. In April 2026 US prosecutors in New York charged Sinaloa governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other officials with drug trafficking and weapons offenses; he stepped aside from the governorship in May.

CJNG lost its founder on February 22, 2026, when Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes was fatally wounded in a Mexican army operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco. A US counter-cartel task force created in January 2026 had passed information to Mexico before the raid. CJNG responded with roadblocks, arson and attacks on security forces in 20 states over two days; 25 National Guard members were among the dead. The group has not visibly fragmented since, as its regional cells largely run their own affairs.

US pressure remains the main external variable. US forces have struck dozens of alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific since 2025, but no US strike on Mexican territory has been confirmed. Mexico's government has denied media reports that CIA officers took part directly in operations inside Mexico. On September 22, 2026, Trump told the UN General Assembly that Mexico was the "epicenter" of cartel violence; Sheinbaum rejected the framing and pointed to US drug demand and weapons flows.

What to watch

Whether the United States carries out any strike on Mexican territory, and how Mexico responds
Whether the Sinaloa factions reach a truce or the fighting spreads further beyond Sinaloa
Whether CJNG holds together under new leadership after El Mencho's death
How the Rocha Moya case affects US–Mexico security cooperation

Data

Parties: Mexican government; Sinaloa Cartel factions (Los Chapitos, La Mayiza); CJNG; other regional groups
Began: December 11, 2006 (federal military deployment); Sinaloa factional war since September 9, 2024
Sinaloa war toll: Sinaloa state prosecutor: 2,951 homicides and 3,889 missing-person cases, Sept 2024 to June 2026
US designations: Six Mexican cartels named Foreign Terrorist Organizations on February 20, 2025
CJNG leader: Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes killed February 22, 2026
Mexican position: Rules out US military action on Mexican soil; cooperates on intelligence

Timeline

2006-12-11President Felipe Calderón deploys the military against cartels in Michoacán, opening the current phase of the conflict.
2024-07-25Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López are arrested in New Mexico after Zambada is flown there.
2024-09-09Open fighting breaks out between Los Chapitos and La Mayiza in Sinaloa.
2025-02-20The United States designates the Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG and four other Mexican groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
2026-01-15The United States establishes a joint interagency task force to counter Mexican cartels.
2026-02-22CJNG leader El Mencho is killed in a Mexican army operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, setting off reprisals in 20 states.
2026-04-29US prosecutors charge Sinaloa governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other officials with drug trafficking and weapons offenses.
2026-09-22Trump calls Mexico the "epicenter" of cartel violence at the UN General Assembly; Sheinbaum rejects the characterization.

Live events, aircraft and thermal anomalies for every theatre are published as GeoJSON on the data endpoints page.