Myanmar

Understand

Myanmar's civil war grew out of the military coup of February 1, 2021, when the armed forces, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, removed the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) and detained its leaders. Mass street protests were met with force. Ousted lawmakers and their allies formed a National Unity Government (NUG), and in September 2021 the NUG and its People's Defense Forces (PDFs) declared a defensive war against the military's State Administration Council.

The resistance joined a much older conflict. Ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Karen National Union, the Arakan Army (AA) and others had fought the central state for decades over autonomy and control of land and trade in border regions. Many of them fought alongside the new resistance after the coup. The military has relied heavily on air power and artillery, while PDFs hold large rural areas of Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay in the central dry zone.

The turning point was Operation 1027, launched on October 27, 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the AA, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The alliance seized towns and border crossings in northern Shan State. The MNDAA captured Lashio, home of the military's Northeastern Command, on August 3, 2024, and the AA took the Western Command headquarters at Ann in Rakhine State on December 20, 2024. China, which borders the region, brokered ceasefires and later pressed the MNDAA to withdraw from Lashio, which it did in April 2025.

On March 28, 2025, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake centered near Sagaing and Mandalay killed more than 3,600 people, by the military government's count, and destroyed buildings across central Myanmar. The military announced a temporary ceasefire from April 2 to April 22, 2025. In July 2025 it dissolved the State Administration Council and handed power to a National Defense and Security Council chaired by Min Aung Hlaing, ahead of national elections. The NLD had been declared dissolved in 2023 for refusing to re-register under new electoral laws.

Parties

• Myanmar armed forces (Tatmadaw) and government The military, which seized power in 2021 and now backs the post-election government of President Min Aung Hlaing; colors on this map are not a judgment of any side.
• National Unity Government and People's Defense Forces Parallel government formed by ousted lawmakers and its armed wing, strongest in Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay; colors are not a judgment.
• Arakan Army (AA) Ethnic Rakhine army that controls most of Rakhine State; colors are not a judgment.
• Kachin Independence Army (KIA) Ethnic Kachin army fighting the military for Bhamo and other areas of Kachin State; colors are not a judgment.
• MNDAA and TNLA Northern Shan armies of the Operation 1027 alliance that later withdrew from some captured towns, the MNDAA under Chinese pressure; colors are not a judgment.
• China Neighbor and major investor that has brokered northern ceasefires and engages the military-backed government.
• ASEAN Regional bloc that has sought a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

Analysis

The military held a general election in three phases on December 28, 2025, and January 11 and 25, 2026. Voting did not take place in many townships held by resistance groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won more than 80 percent of contested seats, and the armed forces hold a further quarter of seats by appointment. The UN, the US government and rights groups called the vote neither free nor fair. Parliament elected Min Aung Hlaing president on April 3, 2026, and he was sworn in on April 10 after handing command of the armed forces to General Ye Win Oo.

On the battlefield, the military has regained ground since 2025. It retook Kyaukme in northern Shan in October 2025, and up to July 2026 it had recaptured about 27 towns along with key trade routes, including the Mandalay–Lashio road and the Myawaddy–Kawkareik road on the Thai border. China, the largest investor in Myanmar, has pressed northern armed groups toward ceasefires and congratulated Min Aung Hlaing on his election, pledging cooperation on Belt and Road projects. Fighting is expected to concentrate in Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay, where PDFs operate.

In the west, the Arakan Army controls 14 of Rakhine State's 17 townships. The military holds the state capital Sittwe, the Chinese-backed port of Kyaukphyu, and Manaung island, and the AA has pushed toward Sittwe and naval bases near Kyaukphyu during 2026. On September 4, 2026, the military launched an offensive known as Operation 4926 on several Rakhine fronts, including Sittwe, Ponnagyun, Kyaukphyu and Gwa. In Kachin State, the KIA and the military have fought for Bhamo, the state's second-largest city, since December 2024, with military counteroffensives backed by airstrikes.

The opposition remains divided between the NUG and its PDFs, which are strongest in central Myanmar, and ethnic armies that pursue their own territorial aims and negotiate separately. In March 2026 the NUG and allied ethnic organizations formed a steering council for a federal democratic union. Aung San Suu Kyi remains in custody; her sentence was reduced in 2026 and commuted to house arrest. The humanitarian toll keeps rising: UN figures put internal displacement above 4 million in August 2026, a third of them in Sagaing Region.

What to watch

• Whether the Arakan Army moves on Sittwe or Kyaukphyu, or the military's Rakhine offensive regains ground
• Whether the battle for Bhamo shifts control in Kachin State
• Whether the new government under President Min Aung Hlaing opens talks with ethnic armed groups or the NUG
• How China's role in northern ceasefires and Kyaukphyu shapes the northern and western fronts
• Whether ASEAN and neighboring states engage the post-election government

Data

Parties

Myanmar military and government vs NUG, People's Defense Forces and ethnic armed organizations

Began

February 1, 2021 (military coup)

Head of state

President Min Aung Hlaing, sworn in April 10, 2026

Elections

Three phases: December 28, 2025; January 11 and 25, 2026

Rakhine State

Arakan Army holds 14 of 17 townships (2026)

Internally displaced

UN: 4.03 million internally displaced (August 2026)

2025 earthquake

Magnitude 7.7, March 28, 2025; more than 3,600 deaths reported by the military government

Territorial control for this theatre is derived from openly licensed settlement-control data and rebuilt daily (2 snapshots held). Download: control.json (GeoJSON inside; CC BY-SA 4.0).

Timeline

1. 2021-02-01The military seizes power and detains Aung San Suu Kyi and other elected leaders.
2. 2021-09The National Unity Government and its People's Defense Forces declare a defensive war against the military.
3. 2023-10-27The Three Brotherhood Alliance launches Operation 1027 in northern Shan State.
4. 2024-01-11A China-brokered ceasefire for northern Shan is agreed; it lasts until June 2024.
5. 2024-08-03The MNDAA captures Lashio, home of the military's Northeastern Command.
6. 2024-12-20The Arakan Army captures the Western Command headquarters at Ann in Rakhine State.
7. 2025-03-28A magnitude 7.7 earthquake strikes near Sagaing and Mandalay.
8. 2025-04The MNDAA withdraws from Lashio under Chinese pressure.
9. 2025-07-31The military dissolves the State Administration Council and forms a National Defense and Security Council.
10. 2025-10-02The military retakes Kyaukme in northern Shan State.
11. 2025-12-28The first of three election phases is held; the others follow on January 11 and 25, 2026.
12. 2026-04-10Min Aung Hlaing is sworn in as president after handing command of the armed forces to Ye Win Oo.
13. 2026-09-04The military launches Operation 4926 against the Arakan Army on several Rakhine fronts.

Live events, aircraft and thermal anomalies for every theatre are published as GeoJSON on the data endpoints page.