Nigeria · Lake Chad

Understand

Nigeria faces two main armed conflicts in its north. In the northeast, an Islamist insurgency began in July 2009, when the group known as Boko Haram rose up in several northern states and its founder, Mohammed Yusuf, was killed during the crackdown. The insurgency spread across Borno State and into neighboring Cameroon, Chad and Niger around Lake Chad. In 2016 the movement split: the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) broke away from Abubakar Shekau, whose faction, Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad (JAS), kept the Boko Haram name.

Shekau died in Sambisa Forest in May 2021 during an ISWAP assault, and ISWAP became the stronger faction, operating from the Lake Chad islands and surrounding areas. JAS remnants remain active, and the two groups also fight each other. In the northwest, criminal gangs known as bandits carry out kidnappings for ransom, cattle rustling and village raids in states such as Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto and Niger. An Islamic State-linked group known as Lakurawa has also established itself in Sokoto and Kebbi states.

Parties

• Nigerian government Federal forces under President Bola Tinubu lead operations against jihadist groups and bandits.
• Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) Islamic State affiliate based around Lake Chad and the strongest jihadist group in the northeast.
• JAS (Boko Haram) Faction loyal to the late Abubakar Shekau, still active in Borno and around Lake Chad.
• Lakurawa Islamic State-linked group active in Sokoto and Kebbi states, targeted by US strikes in December 2025.
• Bandit groups Armed criminal gangs behind kidnappings and raids across the northwest.
• United States Has carried out strikes and a joint raid with Nigerian approval and provides training and intelligence; colors are not a judgment.

Analysis

US involvement has grown since late 2025. In late October and early November 2025, President Trump threatened military action, citing killings of Christians; Nigeria's government rejected that framing and said all communities are affected. On December 25, 2025, US forces struck Islamic State-linked militants in Sokoto State, with Nigerian approval. In February 2026 Washington announced a deployment of about 200 troops for training and advisory work. On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigerian governments said a joint operation in the Lake Chad area had killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, a senior Islamic State official in West Africa.

Violence has continued in several regions through 2026. In February 2026 gunmen killed more than 160 civilians in villages in Kwara State. In the northwest, mass abductions remain frequent: in late September 2026 more than 80 people, mostly farmers and women, were reported abducted in Niger and Zamfara states. Displacement across the Lake Chad region remains large, with about 3.3 million people internally displaced as of September 2026.

As of early October 2026, the government of President Bola Tinubu faces criticism over insecurity ahead of the next national elections. ISWAP retains bases around Lake Chad despite the loss of senior figures in 2026. In the northwest there is no single front: dozens of armed gangs operate across forests and rural districts, and the Islamic State-linked Lakurawa operates alongside them in Sokoto and Kebbi states.

What to watch

• Whether the United States conducts further strikes or raids in Nigeria
• Whether ISWAP rebuilds its leadership around Lake Chad after the losses of 2026
• The scale of mass abductions in the northwest
• Whether insecurity disrupts preparations for the next national elections

Data

Parties

Nigerian government; ISWAP; JAS (Boko Haram); Lakurawa; bandit groups

Began

July 2009 (Boko Haram uprising)

Displaced in Lake Chad region

UNHCR: about 3.3 million internally displaced (September 2026)

Nigerian refugees abroad

UNHCR: more than 472,000 in Niger, Cameroon and Chad (August 2026)

US strikes

First strike December 25, 2025, in Sokoto State

Main areas

Borno State and Lake Chad basin (northeast); Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Niger states (northwest)

Territorial control for this theatre is derived from openly licensed settlement-control data and rebuilt daily (1 snapshots held). Download: control.json (GeoJSON inside; CC BY-SA 4.0).

Timeline

1. 2009-07Boko Haram launches an uprising in northern Nigeria; founder Mohammed Yusuf is killed.
2. 2021-05Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau dies in Sambisa Forest during a clash with ISWAP.
3. 2025-11President Trump threatens US military action in Nigeria, citing killings of Christians; Nigeria rejects the characterization.
4. 2025-12-25US forces strike Islamic State-linked militants in Sokoto State with Nigerian approval.
5. 2026-02Gunmen kill more than 160 civilians in villages in Kwara State.
6. 2026-02The United States announces a deployment of about 200 troops to train and advise Nigerian forces.
7. 2026-05-15The US and Nigeria say a joint operation near Lake Chad killed senior Islamic State official Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.
8. 2026-09More than 80 people are abducted in attacks in Niger and Zamfara states.

Live events, aircraft and thermal anomalies for every theatre are published as GeoJSON on the data endpoints page.