Sahel

Understand

The Sahel conflict began in January 2012, when a Tuareg separatist rebellion in northern Mali was overtaken by jihadist groups that seized the north. French forces intervened in January 2013 and a UN peacekeeping mission followed, but violence spread into central Mali and then into Burkina Faso and western Niger. The main armed groups are Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda's regional affiliate, and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP). Both are designated terrorist organizations by the US. Tuareg separatists, now grouped in the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), remain a separate armed movement.

Military coups brought juntas to power in Mali in 2020 and 2021, in Burkina Faso in 2022 and in Niger in July 2023. The juntas ended military cooperation with France, Mali ended the UN mission on its territory, and all three turned to Russia for security support. They formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and left the regional bloc ECOWAS in January 2025. In Mali, Russia's Africa Corps, which operates under the Russian defense ministry, took over the role previously held by the Wagner Group.

Parties

• Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger (AES juntas) Military governments that took power in coups between 2020 and 2023; color reflects incumbent status, not a judgment.
• JNIM Al-Qaeda's Sahel affiliate, enforcing the fuel blockade of Mali and attacking across all three states.
• Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) Islamic State affiliate active mainly in western Niger and the Mali-Niger-Burkina border area.
• Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg-led separatist coalition that took Kidal in April 2026; color is not a judgment.
• Russia's Africa Corps Russian defense ministry force backing the Malian army; outside backer.

Analysis

Mali is under the heaviest pressure as of early October 2026. Since September 2025, JNIM has enforced a blockade on fuel shipments from Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire, destroying hundreds of tankers and causing shortages, power cuts and school closures. On April 25, 2026, JNIM and the FLA launched coordinated attacks on Bamako, Kati, Kidal, Gao, Sévaré and Mopti. Defense Minister Sadio Camara was killed by a car bomb at his home in Kati, the FLA took Kidal, and Africa Corps units withdrew from several northern posts. The government says more than 900 fuel tankers reached Bamako under military escort on September 14, 2026.

Attacks continue across the region. JNIM attacked an army camp at Dioura in central Mali on September 10, 2026. In Burkina Faso, JNIM opened a coordinated campaign in February 2026 and has kept up attacks on army posts and the state-backed Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland, reportedly overrunning a detachment at Kassoum on September 9. In Niger, JNIM struck Niamey's international airport in June 2026, and ISSP claimed two attacks in western Niger in late September 2026 that killed more than 50 members of the security forces. JNIM operations have also extended into coastal states such as Benin.

What to watch

• Whether escorted convoys can keep fuel reaching Bamako despite the JNIM blockade
• Whether the FLA holds Kidal and the far north after the April 2026 offensive
• The size and posture of Russia's Africa Corps in Mali after its northern withdrawals
• JNIM and ISSP pressure on western Niger and on the borders of coastal states

Data

Parties

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger governments; JNIM; ISSP; FLA; Russia's Africa Corps

Began

January 2012 (northern Mali rebellion)

Fuel blockade of Mali

Since September 2025

Kidal

Held by the FLA since April 2026

Regional bloc

AES states left ECOWAS in January 2025

Internally displaced (Mali)

UNHCR: over 400,000 (June 2026)

Territorial control for this theatre is derived from openly licensed settlement-control data and rebuilt daily (1 snapshots held). Download: control.json (GeoJSON inside; CC BY-SA 4.0).

Timeline

1. 2012-01A Tuareg separatist rebellion begins in northern Mali.
2. 2013-01France intervenes militarily in Mali against jihadist groups holding the north.
3. 2023-07A coup in Niger completes the shift to military rule in all three central Sahel states.
4. 2025-01Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger leave ECOWAS.
5. 2025-09JNIM announces a blockade on fuel supplies to Mali.
6. 2026-02JNIM opens a coordinated campaign across the central Sahel, starting with an attack in Makalondi, Niger.
7. 2026-04-25JNIM and the FLA launch coordinated attacks across Mali; the defense minister is killed and the FLA takes Kidal.
8. 2026-09-14The Malian government says more than 900 fuel tankers reached Bamako under military escort.

Live events, aircraft and thermal anomalies for every theatre are published as GeoJSON on the data endpoints page.