Somalia

Understand

Somalia's conflict grew out of the collapse of the central state in 1991 and the rise of the Islamic Courts Union in 2006. Ethiopian forces intervened against the Courts in 2006, and al-Shabaab, the movement's youth militia, led the insurgency that followed. The group pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2012 and is designated a terrorist organization by the US. African Union troops have supported the federal government since 2007, and the US carries out airstrikes. An Islamic State affiliate operates mainly in the mountains of Puntland in the north.

Al-Shabaab holds a network of mostly rural areas in southern and central Somalia. A government offensive from 2022 pushed it out of towns in central Somalia, but an al-Shabaab offensive in 2025 regained much of that territory, including ground south of Mogadishu. The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) replaced the previous AU mission on January 1, 2025, with troops from Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya and Egypt. Relations between Mogadishu and several federal member states have also broken down.

Parties

• Federal Government of Somalia Internationally recognized government in Mogadishu, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
• Al-Shabaab Al-Qaeda affiliate designated a terrorist organization by the US, holding rural areas in the south and center.
• Islamic State Somalia Islamic State affiliate based in the mountains of Puntland.
• AUSSOM African Union mission supporting the federal government since January 2025; outside backer.
• Puntland, Jubaland and South West State forces Regional forces in disputes with Mogadishu; color is not a judgment.
• United States Conducts airstrikes against al-Shabaab and Islamic State; outside backer.

Analysis

Somalia is in a dispute over mandates as of early October 2026. Parliament's original term ended on April 14, 2026, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's on May 15, 2026, without an agreed election. The president says constitutional amendments set a five-year term; opposition leaders say his mandate has ended. Talks mediated by the UK and US collapsed in May. Puntland has declared the federal mandates over, and federal forces have fought troops loyal to Abdiaziz Laftagareen, the South West State leader removed by the federal government in March 2026, for control of Baidoa in August and September 2026.

Al-Shabaab remains active, and US Africa Command continues strikes, including a September 17, 2026 strike with Puntland forces on a weapons store in the Al Madow mountains. Funding for the AU force is under strain. On September 18, 2026, the US told the UN it would support a 12-month drawdown of UN logistics support for AU troops, a budget of about $500 million a year. Ethiopia was reported on September 30, 2026 to be preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 soldiers; Mogadishu said it had received no formal notice. Piracy has also resumed off the coast.

What to watch

• Whether the government and opposition agree on an electoral model and timetable
• Funding and troop levels for AUSSOM as UN logistics support is drawn down
• Whether Ethiopia withdraws troops and how any gap is filled
• Al-Shabaab pressure on central Somalia and the approaches to Mogadishu

Data

Parties

Federal government; al-Shabaab; Islamic State Somalia; AUSSOM; federal member states

Began

2006 (Ethiopian intervention and al-Shabaab-led insurgency)

AU force

AUSSOM since January 1, 2025; about 11,900 personnel allocated

Mandate dispute

President's original term ended May 15, 2026; extension contested

Newly displaced

UN: over 300,000 (February to September 2025)

Territorial control for this theatre is derived from openly licensed settlement-control data and rebuilt daily (1 snapshots held). Download: control.json (GeoJSON inside; CC BY-SA 4.0).

Timeline

1. 2006-12Ethiopian forces launch a full-scale intervention against the Islamic Courts Union.
2. 2007-03African Union troops begin deploying to Mogadishu.
3. 2012-02Al-Shabaab announces its merger with al-Qaeda.
4. 2025-01-01AUSSOM replaces the previous African Union mission.
5. 2025-12-26Israel recognizes Somaliland, a move Mogadishu rejects.
6. 2026-05-15President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's original term ends amid a dispute over its extension.
7. 2026-08-17Federal troops and forces loyal to ousted South West State leader Laftagareen clash in Baidoa.
8. 2026-09-18The US tells the UN it will support a 12-month drawdown of UN logistics support for AU troops.

Live events, aircraft and thermal anomalies for every theatre are published as GeoJSON on the data endpoints page.