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Conflicts / Asia

Taiwan Strait

Watch ChinaTaiwanUnited States since 2022-08-04

Understand

The Taiwan Strait separates the People's Republic of China from Taiwan, which has been governed separately since the Chinese civil war ended in 1949. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under its control. Taiwan's government, formally the Republic of China, rejects that claim. The United States does not formally recognize Taiwan, but US law commits Washington to make defensive arms available to it, and the US is its main arms supplier.

Military pressure rose sharply in August 2022, when China held large-scale exercises around the island after a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Since then the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has kept up near-daily air and naval activity and staged named drills: Joint Sword-2024A and 2024B after President Lai Ching-te took office in May 2024, Strait Thunder-2025A in April 2025 and Justice Mission-2025 in December 2025. The China Coast Guard has taken a growing role in these operations. There has been no open fighting.

Parties

  • China Claims Taiwan and conducts regular military and coast guard operations around it; map colors are not a judgment.
  • Taiwan Self-governed democracy led by President Lai Ching-te that rejects Beijing's sovereignty claim.
  • United States Taiwan's main arms supplier and security partner, without formal diplomatic ties.
  • Japan Neighboring power whose prime minister's late-2025 remarks on a Taiwan contingency drew a sharp response from Beijing.

Analysis

Justice Mission-2025, held on December 29-30, 2025, rehearsed a blockade of Taiwan's main ports, with live-fire zones and PLA warships and coast guard vessels deployed around the island. It followed a US arms package for Taiwan worth more than $11 billion and a dispute between Beijing and Tokyo over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on a Taiwan contingency. Beijing describes Lai as a separatist. Lai, for his part, labeled the People's Republic a foreign hostile force in a March 2025 national security speech.

In 2026 the contest has shifted toward diplomacy between the major powers. US President Donald Trump made a state visit to China in May 2026, and Xi Jinping visited Washington on September 23-25, 2026. Beijing said Xi urged the United States to oppose Taiwan independence; Trump did not publicly address Taiwan during the visit. Members of the US Congress have pressed the administration over delays to arms deliveries and security funding for Taiwan. In Taipei, Lai's government has proposed a multi-year special defense budget of about T$1.25 trillion, and local elections are due on November 28, 2026.

What to watch

  • Whether the PLA stages a new named exercise around Taiwan after the 2026 Trump-Xi summits
  • Whether the United States changes its public language on Taiwan independence
  • Progress of Taiwan's special defense budget in the opposition-controlled legislature
  • China Coast Guard activity around Taiwan and its outlying islands

Data

Parties
China (PRC); Taiwan (ROC); United States
Current phase began
August 4, 2022 (PLA exercises after the Pelosi visit)
Strait width
About 130 km (81 miles) at its narrowest
Taiwan's president
Lai Ching-te, since May 20, 2024
Latest named PLA drill
Justice Mission-2025, December 29-30, 2025
Open fighting
None

Timeline

  1. 2022-08-04China begins large-scale military exercises around Taiwan after a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
  2. 2024-05-20Lai Ching-te is inaugurated as Taiwan's president.
  3. 2024-05-23The PLA begins the Joint Sword-2024A exercise days after Lai's inauguration.
  4. 2025-03-13Lai labels the People's Republic a foreign hostile force in a national security speech.
  5. 2025-04-01The PLA begins the two-day Strait Thunder-2025A exercise around Taiwan.
  6. 2025-12-29The PLA begins Justice Mission-2025, a two-day blockade rehearsal with live-fire zones.
  7. 2026-05Donald Trump makes a state visit to China.
  8. 2026-09-23Xi Jinping begins a three-day state visit to the United States.

Live events, aircraft and thermal anomalies for every theatre are published as GeoJSON on the data endpoints page.